Third Annual Over or Under: Reviewing Vegas’ lines for the Raptors and the rest of the Atlantic Division
The NBA season is almost here! You know how I know that the NBA season is almost here? Because it’s time for our third annual Over or Under column where we examine the over/unders for our beloved Raptors, the rest of the Atlantic Division, and what it all means.
Yes, I fully realize that divisions are of little consequence in the modern NBA but each team still plays one another four times a season (and that has to count for something damnit!)
Two summers ago, we were a successful 4–1 in our Atlantic Division over/unders. Last summer, we went 3–2 (but to be fair, we had only two locks: Philly under & Raptors over — both happened) bringing our two year record to 7–3. Not too shabby! Here’s to hoping we can repeat that success this summer.
New York Knicks (28.5)
This one just feels like easy money — the NBA version of taking candy from a baby. The Knicks won a league-worst 17 games last season. I repeat: 17 games! You’re telling me they are going to win 12 more games this season over last. LOL! No way.
Besides finishing with the worst record in the association, the Knicks spent all of last season daydreaming about Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and Zion Williamson; then they woke up to Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson, Marcus Morris, and Wayne Ellington. Don’t get me wrong: these are respectable names; but they ain’t KD, Kryie, or Zion.
The lone bright spot for the Knicks is that they drafted R.J. Barrett (I’m higher on Barrett that most). But the Knicks aren’t exactly known for their player development. Their last two draft selections (Frank Ntilikina & Kevin Knox) didn’t have promising starts to their career. Ntilikina, entering his third year, very well may be out of the league in a couple seasons, or best case, as some team’s mildly competent third-string point guard. Are you telling me that the Knicks are going to properly development Barrett? You’re telling me that their strategy of signing only power forwards is going to pay off? You’re telling me the Knicks are going to be able to competently balance this mix of veterans (remember when Bobby Portis broke his teammate’s face) and youngsters?
The biggest problem facing the Knicks these past two decades has been their inability to simply get out of their own way. All of which is to say: when betting on the Knicks always take the under and let the sheer incompetence of that franchise do its thing.
We are personally pegging them to win around 22–24 games. Consider this our first of two locks.
Brooklyn Nets (44.5)
The only people who feel slighted by this number of 44.5 are Nets fans. The Nets won 42 games last season eclipsing their projected over/under of 32.5 from last year by 9 wins. That’s pretty remarkable considering they won 21, 20, and 28 games respectively during their prior three seasons.
But congratulations are indeed in order for Brooklyn. They have a legit argument for having had the best offseason.
But did they? Did they really? Hear me out.
I mean they did sign Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. On paper that seems like an exceptional idea. However, Durant, who signed for 4 years and $164M, tore his Achilles tendon in the Finals, and will miss the entire 2019/2020 season.
Thus his contract is really a three-year deal.
And when he comes back for the 2020/2021 season, he’s going to need the full season just to figure out what kind of player he is going to be after tearing his Achilles. Can he tap back into his pre-Achilles talent? Who knows! But, either way, it’ll take a full season to find out.
Thus, this is really a two-year deal.
Then you remember that the fourth year is a player option. So really this is a one-year deal. The Brooklyn Nets are paying Kevin Durant $120 million for one season; and that is assuming he regains a modicum of his past form.
I ain’t buying it.
Their next big addition was none other than Kyrie Irving. This dude has never met a bridge he couldn’t burn. He burned bridges in Cleveland with behind the scenes drama. Got traded to Boston where he ruined team chemistry unlike anything we have seen before; essentially turning the Celtics from contenders to reality-checked pretenders. At this point, I don’t see Irving changing who he is based on his track record thus far. Could he change? Who knows. Maybe he’s learned from his past mistakes. Either way, I ain’t buying it. Who know you has a nice bridge? Brooklyn!
However, to be fair, this Brooklyn team is pretty talented. They have Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, DeAndre Jordan, and Taurean Prince to name a few. It hurts me to say this but this is a fun team. This would also be a really fun team if we got the idealized version of Kyrie Irving and a fully healthy KD. But Irving and Durant are both question marks. How will Kyrie fit into the Nets lockerroom and culture? What kind of player will KD be going forward?
So, this 44.5 over/under actually seems very on point. But I’m taking the under. I could even see these guys potentially finishing below .500 (but that is there worse case scenario). I see this Nets team winning exactly 44 games
Philadelphia 76ers (55.5)
What can I say, Las Vegas loves the Sixers. Last season, their over/under was 54.5 and they finished with 51 wins. After finishing the 2019 campaign with 51 wins, what did Vegas do? They doubled-down! They put Philly down for 55.5 this time around. So, basically, Philly will have to win 5 more games than last season.
In my humble opinion, their over/under win total is very high, not because of anything that Philly did, but because of the talent omission in the East. Kawhi Leonard bolted town and KD is out for the season. But the fact remains that Philly, along with Milwaukee, are considered to be in a tier all their own atop the East. But let’s not forget what happened last season when the Celtics were crowned as the clear cut favourite to come out of the East before the games were even played. Let’s be sure to learn from our past mistakes and let the games play out before handing the crown to anyone. Sound good? No…okay.
I have some questions for you: does Philly really scare you? Are you really scared of Ben Simmons? The person who was demoted to the dunker spot throughout the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. Are you really scared of Joel Embiid? The player whose conditioning is always in question. The player who missed a few playoff games for various ailments that strongly hinted at poor conditioning. You know, the player whom Marc Gasol essentially neutered. Are you scared of those two players? I didn’t think so.
The lone player they had that was not afraid of the moment was Jimmy Butler. Butler single-handedly almost dragged the Sixers past our beloved Raptors. But Butler is no longer in town. He looked at this Philadelphia squad and decided to play for the Heat. That should be very eye-opening. Let’s also not forget that they lost an elite three-point shooter in J.J. Redick.
Again, I am going to take the under here — but just barely. I foresee Philly being in a battle for the top of the conference; especially with the additions of Al Horford, to help alleviate Embiid’s workload, and Josh Richardson from the Butler-Miami swap. I still see Philly as being a very very good team. I just don’t see them as being an elite team.
So, let’s go ahead and pencil them in for 53–55 wins and, most importantly, the under.
Boston Celtics (49.5)
One of my guilty pleasures of last season was watching the Celtics implode.
Last summer, pundits were crowning them as the East champs before the season even began. Their over/under last season was 57.5 and they finished with 49 wins (49 wins is still impressive — it’s just not the 60+ they were forecasted to finish with). So it’s only appropriate that their over/under for 2019/2020 is 49.5 wins.
Remember back from earlier in the summer when the FIBA World Cup began and the roster consisted of four Celtics players (Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kemba Walker)? And the narrative at that particular time was that this international experience would provide these four Celtics the opportunity to play together earlier in highstakes games thus developing their chemistry together? The narrative before the tournament even began was that the FIBA World Cup would serve as a projection for how Boston’s upcoming season would fare. Remember that?
This was when everyone thought the U.S. squad would win the World Cup; thus foretelling amazing things that would unfold in the upcoming Celtics season. But that didn’t happen. The U.S. flamed out. They finished 7th. Which, I think, is their worse performance in international basketball…ever! So, let me now ask you, if this FIBA World Cup team was supposed to be a indicator for the Celtics success and chemistry, what does it mean that they finish 7th? No one is talking about that particular part of the narrative now. It was a convenient narrative before the World Cup began though.
So what does the U.S. failure in the World Cup portend for the Celtics now? Something? Nothing? Who knows! It’s just interesting that no one is talking about it considering everyone was talking about it before the World Cup began.
Anyways, I digress.
The Celtics lost Kyrie “The Burner of Bridges” Irving but gained Kemba Walker. I got to be honest: I kind of prefer Walker over Irving. Irving is definitely the more popular and marketable player but let’s not confuse popularity with overall talent. Give me Kemba Walker over Kyrie Irving every single time. He’s a team chemistry guy and, by all accounts, he is not a fucking weirdo. Losing Irving and gaining Walker does represent a fresh start for the Celtics.
Another thing to consider is the loss of Al Horfod. I do think the Celtics will miss Horford more than Irving. Boston is very thin on big men depth and I see this being an issue throughout the marathon that is the regular season. Unless, of course, they find a way to acquire a big man in exchange for their wing wealth (cough cough Steven Adams). Don’t rule it out.
But 49 wins for this young Celtics team does seem a bit high but it’s not crazy high. It’s only a titch high. So I’m going with the under yet again because I see them winning between 47–49 games.
Toronto Raptors (46.5)
Last but certainly not least are the good guys and your reigning, defending, undisputed Champ! No need for me to re-hash why I’m high on this Raptors squad (because you can check it out by clicking here).
But I’d like to remind everyone that this team is deep. We still have Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet. We added Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Matt Thomas (and, to be fair, Cameron Payne). This is a good and deep team. This is not a rebuilding team. We already did the rebuild. We did it while we were winning. Teams can barely handle doing one of those things (winning or rebuilding) at the same time — but this Raptors front office was able to do both at the same time. Now, the goal is finding the right pieces that fit around Siakam and seeing what Siakam can do as the focal point.
I still see this Raptors team battling for home-court in the playoffs. And, dare I say, I can potentially see this Raptors squad battling for Eastern Conference supremacy. There I said it! It felt good to get that out. Thanks for allowing me to go into full homer-mode there for a moment. I appreciate it.
If you can’t tell already, I’m going with the over here — and you can consider this a lock!
Until next time…
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