So where do the Raptors go from here?

(Pozzobon Illustrations)

So it’s been over two weeks since Kawhi Leonard decided to leave our beloved Raptors. With the emotions/dust of that decision having settled, it’s time to now ask ourselves: where do we go from here now that the best player in the association has left the Raptors?

Take a stroll with us through some of our random thoughts on that very question as we try to figure out some answers.

• First things first, I need to get something off my chest in regards to the rumours of whether or not we had a realistic chance of acquiring Paul George.
• How old is Paul George? 30? If we wanted George we would have had to part with Pascal Siakam as well as seven years worth of draft capital. A credible argument can be made that Siakam is better than George through a five year lens. That right there is why this trade did not happen. Don’t get me wrong: Paul George is a better player…right now at this very moment. But in a couple seasons, Siakam very well could be a better player than George. Hell, maybe Siakam takes another Siakam-sized leap and suddenly becomes a superior talent THIS coming season! I’m not ruling it out.
• So if you are asking me who would I rather have over the next five seasons, I’m picking Siakam every single time. But OKC did not just want Siakam. We would have had to parted ways with Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, and Serge Ibaka as well five unprotected picks (since a team cannot trade consecutive first round picks, that means OKC would have been in control of our draft capital for close to a decade). Also, the years where we would have kept our pick, you sure as hell know that OKC would have pushed for at least two pick swaps. No fucking way Masai Ujiri makes this trade. How do I know that? Because it would probably be the worst trade in NBA history and Masai Ujiri doesn’t make bad trades (he has a reputation to maintain). Seven years worth of draft picks? Plus Siakam, FVV, Ibaka, and Lowry? Let’s also not forget that those five picks would all be unprotected. Would you do that deal? No fucking way!

• While I’m in full homer mode, I have another spicy take for you: the Raptors, as currently constructed, are the third best team in the Eastern Conference. There, I said it!
• I’ll also say this: we honestly don’t know what happens from this point forward. It’s like a choose-your-own-adventure as we don’t know what this roster will look like in October. But with the signings the Raptors have made since Kawhi bolted town, I am getting the sense that Ujiri might be okay with running it back and gauging the trade value of Lowry, Ibaka, and Gasol throughout the season.
• This Raptors roster has a very good claim at being the third best squad in the East. We clearly have Milwaukee and Philly in a tier of their own. But we’re in the same ballpark as Indiana, Boston, and Brooklyn. Hypothetically, say everything goes well this season. Let’s say Siakam takes another leap being the offensive focal paint. It’s not hard to imagine the Raptors having home court advantage in the first round. We also get to evaluate how Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka fit alongside Siakam. Let’s see what this yields us.
• Who knows what Siakam could be next year. An All-Star? That’s in play! Averaging over 25 points per game? That’s in play! Averaging 8 boards and 5 assists? Sure, why not! Being considered one of the top 10 players in the league? It’s a possibility. These are things we thought a month ago about Siakam when Leonard was still a Raptor. The only thing that changed is that Leonard is now gone. Siakam’s ceiling doesn’t change. In fact, it just got raised.
• This roster as presently constructed will be a pesky first or second round out (with the smallest glimmer of hope that the East is wind open…just sayin). Who knows what could happen. Maybe Siakam can make a claim to being the second best player in the East. I will fully admit this is me being a full on Raptors homer here — but maybe everything clicks this upcoming season kind of like how this past season went.
• I can’t see a reason why with this team we can’t be in contention for home court advantage in the first round. Tell me I’m wrong!

• But there’s also another path that Masai may choose. The Raptors have LOTS of expiring contracts. Lowry ($33M), Gasol ($25.5M), Ibaka ($23), and VanVleet ($9M). That’s an incredible $90 million dollars coming off the books heading into the 2020 offseason. But before we rush ahead to next year’s offseason, I’m very curious to see how these expiring players (Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka) play in an offense meant for Siakam.
• The reason I mention potential fit is because any time this hypothetical $90M in cap space comes up, people assume it means the plan is to jettison Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka after this season. Why can’t we wait to see how they play with Siakam and bring them back on more reasonable contracts. Why can’t we bring those three players back on $15M per year deals? So instead of these three players earning $80 combined, that number is reduced to $45 million.
• Also, even though FVV is on an expiring contract, he is still young and fits the Siakam timeline perfectly so we see him staying long term. He’s the heir apparent to Lowry after all.
• All of the above is the reason I don’t understand why some fans are in trade-now mode when it comes to our expiring deals. What’s the goal of these types of trades? Do we desperately need a first round pick that will be heavily protected or do we desperately need a couple second round picks? If the plan is to trade our expiring deals, the plan then is to be patient instead of trading now. Because a late first round pick or a couple second rounders is not enough for Lowry.
• It’s a long season, you never know what can happen. Maybe Mike Conley is suddenly out for the season and Utah becomes desperate because they can see the title in the distance. Suddenly they need to get Lowry because they think they are still in it. Who knows what Utah will offer at that point if Lowry was available to help keep their momentum going.
• We saw this last year with Portland when Jusif Nurkic got injured. What if a contender’s center goes down during the season? Suddenly Gasol and Ibaka are worth a whole lot more.
• At this moment, the trade value for Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka is next to zero — and we’ve established that we aren’t trading these guys for second round picks just to get them off the books. You know why? Because maybe there’s a world where Lowry spends the rest of his career as a Raptor on team friendly deals making $10-$15 million per season. I have no issue with that because I imagine at some point Lowry is going to transition from being the All-Star, the leader, and floor general to being a sixth man (in an ideal world in which he stays in Toronto).
• But it does seem like it’s either/or when Raptors fans discuss these expiring deals: either you trade them all or let them walk at the end of the season. Why can’t they come back at a reduced rate IF they fit well with Siakam? To me this is more valuable than second rounders.
• The plan is clear. The plan is to be patient. See what develops throughout the course of the season. See who has chemistry with Siakam. Monitor teams who may become in desperate need of a point guard or a big man as the season progresses. Injuries happen. And you know who strikes me as a patient man? Masai Ujiri. He recognizes that everyone soaked up their cap space during this free agency frenzy. He knows that teams already coughed up their draft picks for star players. There is no rush to trade Lowry, Ibaka, or Gasol. These are three really good players. We saw what Gasol did defensively in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Without him, I personally believe we do not beat the 76ers in the second round. So why not keep Gasol in case we run into Joel Embiid once again in the 2020 postseason?
• There is no rush (or point) to suddenly having a clearance sale just for the sake of having the clearance sale. Teams become desperate throughout the year. Situations arise that we could not have foreseen. Who’s the next star player that becomes available? Then say that franchise with this unhappy player is just looking for expiring deals to clear their cap space? Unlikely, but we still can’t rule it out.

• What this free agency, and what this Kawhi situation reinforced, is that everything flips on a dime in the NBA. We don’t know what the narrative of the NBA season will be a month from now let alone January 2020. We don’t know which players will get injured and which superstars suffer a significant injury. If any major injuries happen to either Philly or Milwaukee then suddenly an opening presents itself.
• The Raptors are in a unique situation. We have great young players in FVV, Siakam, Norm, and OG. Who knows — maybe OG takes a leap this upcoming season like FVV did two seasons ago and Siakam did just this past season. Maybe suddenly OG is scoring 15–17 points per game. I am not going to rule that out.
• What this offseason taught me is that anything can happen; expect the unexpected. It happened to us last offseason: after another deflating sweep at the hands of LeBron we acquired Leonard and suddenly we’re world champions. Who saw that one coming?
• So if the NBA is this unpredictable, it tells me that the Raptors are better off holding their chips/assets waiting for the right moment to strike. Also, it’s important to remember that these expiring contracts aren’t just any expiring contracts: they are World Champion Expiring Contracts. Players who have been to the Finals and succeeded. That has value too!
• Simply put: we cannot get rid of these players right now because we need to let the season unfold a little.

• Another avenue Masai could explore is tanking. This would be the motivating factor for parting with Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka sooner rather than later — because it would put the Raptors on the path to rebuilding sooner rather than potentially having a one season run-it-back nostalgia tour. Essentially, running it back while having no realistic chance at the title is just putting us one more year behind a potential rebuild. But is tanking even the right path to go down?
• Remember Tank for Wiggins? Now the dude is considered one of the worst contracts in the NBA. What about Markelle Fultz? He’s broken. Getting the top pick is not a guarantee at improving your franchise. One of my pet peeves is when you hear someone say “well, trade so and so for draft picks”. What does that even mean? Or how about when people say “trade Ben Simmons for shooters”. Like who? Construct the trade for me. Tell me which team you would trade him to and which shooters you would want in return.
• It’s almost like this magical elixir: let’s trade him for draft picks! You know who those draft picks then turn into? Fultz, Wiggins, Bargnani, Anthony Bennett. There’s no magic elixir that guarantees these theoretical and magical first round picks all turn into players you can build your team around (just ask the Suns). The draft is a crap shoot. In the 2016 draft, Ben Simmons went first overall while Siakam was selected 27th. A case can be made that Siakam has been the best player from the 2016 draft (and I fully support that take!)
• Also, picking at the top of the draft is more of a crap shoot than ever before. It’s not like it was before the mid-1990s. College players played all four seasons in the NCAA. Teams scouting them had four years worth of data versus just one year of data now (the crap shoot will get even worse when high school players can declare for the draft). You knew what you were getting more or less when your draft choices have played all four seasons of collegiate ball. This is why we are seeing more and more lottery picks flame out than ever before. Just because you have a top pick doesn’t mean anything.
• Top picks have less value now than ever before especially when you weigh in the flattening of the lottery odds. So you know what? I’m not willing to part with franchise icons like Lowry for a pick or two.
• Also, I’ll say this: the current roster would be the perfect Toronto team. We’ll be a frisky team, we got a young star, we just won a title, and our best player left. I couldn’t think of anything more Toronto Raptors than that!
• This upcoming season is house money because we are champions. You can take Kawhi away from us but it still doesn’t mean we aren’t world champions. We are world champions. We are the fans of the World Champion Toronto Raptors. The fans are still going to come out next year and support this team. We even have another star ready to be built around in Siakam. How many teams can say that after their best player walks?
• I’ll also say this: Kawhi was the Finals MVP. There is absolutely zero doubt about that. Without him we don’t win the title. But in the Finals against the Warriors, it was a complete team victory. Leonard probably performed his worst in the Finals than in the previous rounds. Siakam played incredibly well throughout the Finals. Lowry painted his masterpiece in Game 6. The Finals, bottom line, was a team effort. Let’s also not forget that these guys now have championship DNA. When the playoffs get tight, they have been there before. So you’re welcome, Kawhi, for the title we gave you.
• Even if we get eliminated in the first round — oh well, not much was expected of us after Kawhi left. Buckle up though because who knows what’s going to happen. We have great young players. I’m curious to see what this team looks like with Siakam in the lead role. I’m curious to see if OG has a leap in him. I’m curious to see how Masai Ujiri, a master NBA chess player, builds this team going forward.
• It’s also okay to feel down that Kawhi left. We don’t get to defend our title. That sucks. That really truly sucks. But once that ball tips come October we’re all in on this Raptors squad! We have a title to defend — and who knows, anything can happen.

Until next time…

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